Oil Dispute May Yield Africa's Newest War

President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan at a summit for The New Partership for Africa's Development in January 2009. Photo: U.S. Navy

Weeks of fighting over a major disputed oil field along an ill-defined border between Sudan and the world's newest nation, the breakaway Republic of South Sudan, has escalated to the brink of war. Welcome to Africa's newest conflict, something the Obama administration worked hard to prevent.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ' an indicted war criminal dating to his role in the Darfur genocide ' told troops in the border state of South Kordofan on Thursday that they won't stop with just taking back the disputed oil field, but 'in a final lesson of force' his troops 'shall go all the way to Juba,' South Sudan's capital, according to the Wall Street Journal. On Tuesday, Sudan's parliament declared that South Sudan's government 'must be fought until it is defeated.'

Suffice to say, the situation is chaotic. Recent weeks saw South Sudanese troops occupy the oil field, called the Heglig, which both sides say is part of their territory (more on this later). Following the occupation, reports began appearing of air and ground attacks continuing into Thursday by Sudan's military against South Sudanese troops entrenched around the oil facilities. According to the latest reports, the South beat back four attacks this week by Sudanese troops along the border. Philip Aguer, military spokesperson for South Sudan, said the army was 'still in its positions.'

It's an open question whether Bashir is serious about taking the war all the way to South Sudan's capital. 'The Republic of South Sudan is not in the state of war, nor is it interested in war with Sudan,' Barnaba Marial Benjamin, South Sudan's Minister of Information, said. That might be a moot point. Benjamin added that Sudan's declaration of his government as an enemy 'amounts to a declaration of war.'

South Sudan officially became independent last July. But fighting in the region goes back decades, with two civil wars and more than two million deaths claimed by the conflict. Since the South's independence, the dispute over oil has come to the forefront.

The two governments have accused each other of supporting rival rebel groups, and have traded economic barbs: South Sudan stopped oil production completely in January, starving Sudan of much needed revenue. (The South uses Sudan's pipelines for export). Sudan has also been accused by the South of seizing oil shipments. And in case anyone is wondering why Sudan wants the disputed Heglig oil field back ' its crude comprised roughly half of Sudan's oil revenue. Altogether, Sudan lost about two-thirds of its oil output with the South's independence.

'Given the brutally indiscriminate ways in which Khartoum has previously chosen to wage war on the people of the South ' as well as of Darfur, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan ' we should expect huge civilian casualties, massive human displacement, and intolerable assaults on civilians in the North who are 'ethnically Southern,'' blogged Eric Reeves, a Sudan analyst at Smith College.

Both sides have been beefing up for a confrontation for years, anticipating the South's independence. Sudan purchased around a dozen MiG-29 fighter aircraft in 2009. South Sudan reportedly received tanks and artillery from Ukraine. In 2008, our own State Department awarded a contract to a U.S. security firm to train and advise the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the rebel group turned national army of South Sudan ' and now occupying the Heglig. In January, the Obama administration sent five military officers to join the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, or UNMISS, and issued a memorandum 'giving the U.S. the ability to send weapons and defense assistance to South Sudan,' according to the Associated Press.

Indeed, the Obama administration emerged as one of South Sudan's strongest backers. In the administration's 2013 budget, South Sudan emerged as a recipient of $250 million for relieving the country's debt. Millions in potential funds were also to be directed toward boosting agriculture, schools and the country's legislature. The administration also cleared U.S. companies to invest in the country's oil industry.

But as war seemed likely, the administration moved to try and prevent it. According to a White House statement dated April 2, President Obama spoke with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit to 'ensure that South Sudan's military exercises maximum restraint,' and to not engage in any fighting along the border. Eight days later, on April 10, South Sudan occupied the Heglig oil field ' prefiguring, it seems, Africa's newest war.